10% CAGR as a risk-disciplined equity strategy

Conviction: 70% · Horizon: 5Y · 2026-05-07
Moderate return targets can improve long-term results by forcing better downside control

Pursuing modest annual returns encourages investors to avoid speculative trades, focus on valuation support, and compound capital with fewer large drawdowns. A process centered on preserving capital can still capture upside when mispriced stocks rerate beyond the initial target.

Instrument Side Target Reason
PYPL Long PayPal offers a mature platform, broad network effects, and cash-generating operations at a compressed earnings multiple, which can provide downside support while leaving room for multiple expansion and steady compounding.
LULU Long Lululemon combines a strong brand, pricing power, and resilient unit economics with a lower valuation than its historical quality profile would suggest, creating an attractive balance between limited downside and durable upside.

Themes

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