Software May Outperform Semiconductors on Near-Term Rotation

Conviction: 58% · Horizon: 1W · 2026-05-07
Relative momentum may shift from chipmakers to software if leadership breaks down in semiconductors.

Semiconductor leadership appears extended, while software has room to catch up if relative strength turns. A confirmed technical shift can attract incremental capital into software ETFs at the expense of chip exposure.

Instrument Side Target Reason
SMH Short We believe semiconductor exposure is vulnerable to consolidation after a strong run, especially if relative momentum starts fading versus software.
IGV Long We believe software can benefit from a short-term rotation as semiconductor leadership cools and relative strength improves in application and cloud names.

Themes

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