Software May Outperform Semiconductors on Near-Term Rotation
Conviction: 58%
· Horizon: 1W
· 2026-05-07
Relative momentum may shift from chipmakers to software if leadership breaks down in semiconductors.
Semiconductor leadership appears extended, while software has room to catch up if relative strength turns. A confirmed technical shift can attract incremental capital into software ETFs at the expense of chip exposure.
| Instrument | Side | Target | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Short | We believe semiconductor exposure is vulnerable to consolidation after a strong run, especially if relative momentum starts fading versus software. | |
| IGV | Long | We believe software can benefit from a short-term rotation as semiconductor leadership cools and relative strength improves in application and cloud names. |
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