Renewed Liquidity and Supply-Side Inflation Pressure

Conviction: 77% · Horizon: 9M · 2026-05-03
Balance-sheet re-expansion and commodity shocks increase the odds of a renewed inflation wave.

A rising central-bank balance sheet alongside elevated oil and fertilizer costs creates a setup where nominal asset prices stay supported while consumer inflation reaccelerates. High public debt further raises the incentive to tolerate inflation as a mechanism of real debt dilution.

Themes

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