Humanoid robots become a public-market theme after Unitree lists
Unitree's roughly 200x trailing-sales multiple is too expensive to buy the humanoid OEM wave today
Unitree listed at about $53B after ~$250M of 2025 revenue, of which humanoids were about half, with ~5,500 humanoid shipments at ~$24k ASPs and multi-thousand-unit output already shown. Nomura initiated at 25x 2027 sales. Tesla Optimus missed a 5,000-unit 2025 target and still produces little in H2 2026, while Agility is lining up a $2.5B pre-money IPO on ~$37M trailing revenue, ~$100M cash burn, and a $300M multi-year order. Hardware themes often de-rate after a heavily oversubscribed IPO, as they did after SPCX.
| Instrument | Side | Target | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 688836.SS | Short | We believe a roughly 200x trailing-sales hardware multiple is disconnected from about $125M of humanoid revenue and ~5,500 units shipped, even if a 25x 2027 sales frame is generous. |
Humanoid exposure is cleaner through actuators, bearings, sensors, and vision than through OEM hardware
Scaled humanoids still need precision strain-wave reducers, actuators, bearings, torque sensors, lidar/perception, and vision processors. Unitree already ships thousands of units, Agility has 65,000 real-world hours and a $300M multi-year order, and Tesla is targeting a long-term ~$30k build cost from $50-100k today. Component makers capture that volume growth without paying ~200x sales for an OEM.
| Instrument | Side | Target | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6324.T | Long | Precision strain-wave reducers are a scarce, high-spec bottleneck in humanoid joints; demonstrated multi-thousand-unit output raises reducer demand before OEM profits show up. |
Themes
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