Sticky long-end Treasury yields as a headwind for high-multiple AI names

Conviction: 58% · Horizon: 6M · 2026-08-20

A 10-year near 4.70 percent and a 30-year near 5.24 percent keep pressure on AI growth multiples

Plans to at least double some long-term Treasury buybacks from September initially pulled yields down, but that move has largely reversed. The 10-year back around 4.70 percent and the 30-year around 5.24 percent still squeeze higher-multiple growth names. Another push higher in the long end would quickly become a problem for the AI complex, while a cooling in long rates would remove one of the main macro pressure points.

Themes

TXN GIII TPR TXO TGT OFG Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

ECPG DK DVA THG PLOW JLL ADM Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

NESR BE SANM NVDA PENN FIVE SNDR Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

ASMB Assembly Biosciences Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

IA Innovative Aerosystems Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

LQDT Liquidity Services Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

OFG OFG Bancorp Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

TGT Target Earnings Estimate Momentum 2026-08-25

GECC BHP CAPL GSBC LCUT KSS MNR High-Yield Income Stocks With Improving Earnings Expectations 2026-08-24

ZIM FHI NVST Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-24

SNDR NESR OSCR CNC TAL Growth Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-24

NESR National Energy Services Earnings Momentum Builds 2026-08-24

FHI Federated Hermes Earnings Estimates Rise 2026-08-24

NVT nVent Electric Profit Outlook Improves 2026-08-24

CRI Carter's Earnings Outlook Strengthens 2026-08-24

CRD-B Crawford Earnings Estimates Climb 2026-08-24

CNR Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-24

Physical AI and Robotics as the Next Transformative Wave 2026-08-24

NVDA MU AI Chip Demand Supercycle Driven by Explosive Agent Token Consumption 2026-08-24

XLI US Industrial Sovereignty as Structural Multi-Year Outperformer 2026-08-24

NVDA AI Ecosystem Outperformance: Full-Stack Infrastructure, Agentic Economy, and AI Medicine 2026-08-24

GLD US Dollar Debasement via Treasury Buyback Expansion 2026-08-24

USMV Factor Rotation from Growth and Momentum to Value and Low Volatility 2026-08-24

CIBR Mission Critical Cybersecurity as a Non-Discretionary Growth Sector 2026-08-24

ALK GWRS AAT ELAN NOMD KEEL ZWS Insider Buying Cluster Across Airlines, Water, REITs, and Consumer Sectors 2026-08-24

AAOI AAOI Funding Model Evolution: From Equity Dilution to Customer-Funded Buildout 2026-08-24

SREMF US Government Signals Critical Minerals Investment Priorities 2026-08-24

AMZN NVDA AI Trade Is Not Over: Tech, Memory, and Cloud Giants Accelerating 2026-08-23

ASTS AST SpaceMobile: Speculative Swing Potential Against Deteriorating Fundamentals 2026-08-23

BABA BABA Pre-Earnings Bullish Setup With 3-to-1 Options Flow Dominance 2026-08-23

TLT Treasury's Bessent Put: Temporary Liquidity, Persistent Structural Risk 2026-08-23

ATEYY DELL HPE KIAXY MU SNDK NTAP Memory and Storage Sector in Early Innings of Secular Growth 2026-08-23

IWD Risk-On Market Regime Favors US Large-Cap Value 2026-08-23

GLD US Treasury Bond Buying Revives Currency Debasement Trade 2026-08-23

SLV BTC-USD Real Assets as Scarce Alternatives to Dollar-Denominated Claims 2026-08-23

TLT Global Capital Crowding Out 2026-08-23

VLO Diesel Crack Spread and Structural Goods Inflation 2026-08-23

COP Hidden CITGO refining value in ConocoPhillips 2026-08-20

QQQ SPY IWM KRE FAZ US Equity Momentum Turns Negative as Indexes Lose July Support 2026-08-20

WDAY CRM ADBE GTLB AI-Resilient Software and Takeover Support 2026-08-20

NVDA Anthropic's Revenue Surge and Software Displacement 2026-08-20

SPY AEM XLE Late-Summer Rotation and September Seasonal Weakness 2026-08-20

NBIS IREN CRWV Neocloud Re-Rating Toward AI Compute Valuations 2026-08-20

NFLX V MA ICE ALC SPGI Wide Moats in Streaming, Payments, Exchanges, and Data 2026-08-20

GOOGL LEN DHI Quality Tech and US Homebuilders as Core Holdings 2026-08-20

TLT CL=F ES=F Treasury Long-End Buybacks Are Not a Lasting Put Under Yields 2026-08-20

COHR LITE AAOI SMTC TSM GFS MRVL Optical links moving from the rack onto the GPU and HBM package 2026-08-20

Sticky long-end Treasury yields as a headwind for high-multiple AI names 2026-08-20

CCAP REFI Cannabis Lenders Insiders Validate Private-Credit Marks 2026-08-20

AAT ARE GLPI REIT Insiders Accumulate After Price Weakness 2026-08-20

DMLP MFP SGRY Mineral Royalties and Other Open-Market Insider Buys 2026-08-20

TEM Tempus AI Looks Cheap Versus a 12-Month Sum-of-Parts 2026-08-20

MP USAR ALOY Rare-Earth Magnets as the Humanoid Bottleneck 2026-08-20

CBRS Cerebras Looks Too Expensive 2026-08-20

MELI Mercado Libre is trading near-term margin for a compounding Latin American commerce flywheel 2026-08-20

TLT GLD SMH Treasury Stealth QE and the Bessent Put 2026-08-19

HL CTGO Silver as a Clear Market Theme 2026-08-19

TLT RSP Preemptive Treasury Rescue at Record Highs 2026-08-19

BIZD FXY Private Credit, Carry Trades, and Stablecoin Run Risk 2026-08-19

RRX RBC VPG OUST INDI 6324.T Humanoid robots reach public markets 2026-08-19

MRNA Multi-Year Accumulation Then Sudden Ten-Bagger Markup 2026-08-19

ES=F E-mini Dip Resistance Opens a Path to 8000 2026-08-19

TLT GLD US Treasury Steps In as Buyer of Last Resort for Long Bonds 2026-08-19

MRVL Google TPU Deal Puts a $206 Floor Under Marvell 2026-08-19

MP USAR ALOY Western Rare Earth Magnets as the Humanoid Bottleneck 2026-08-19

TEM Precision-oncology data layer after a Phase 3 mRNA vaccine win 2026-08-19

688836.SS 6324.T Humanoid robots become a public-market theme after Unitree lists 2026-08-19

NBIS A 5% pullback after a 270% one-year rally is noise 2026-08-19

FN Fabrinet Optical Capacity and Mix Shift 2026-08-19

ADTN Adtran Access Recovery and Huawei Displacement 2026-08-19

SMH CRM AI and Semiconductor Rotation into Software 2026-08-18

FN ADTN Optical Networking Add on AI Tape Weakness 2026-08-18

QQQ MU SNDK AMZN NVDA AI trade extends as QQQ bounce confirms and memory plays re-accelerate 2026-08-18

AMZN AWS Path to One Trillion in Annual Revenue 2026-08-18

OUST NVDA NBIS MRVL AAOI BE AI stocks that still look like good value 2026-08-18

Fabrinet Post-Earnings Dip Versus Stronger Data-Center Optics Outlook 2026-08-18

SPY Lifeless market waiting for a catalyst 2026-08-18

QQQ FAZ FNGD XLP Cap-Weighted Indexes Enter a Yellow-Risk Regime After a Mechanical Squeeze 2026-08-18

SPY TLT Rising Treasury Yields Near an Equity Pressure Point 2026-08-18

NVDA CBRS NVIDIA versus Cerebras on AI-chip valuation after a frothy IPO 2026-08-18

Amazon Retail and Ads Already Cover Most of the Market Cap 2026-08-18

PHYS China Capital Controls, Money Printing, and Gold 2026-08-14

SPY The Equity Bull Market Remains Intact 2026-08-13

GOOGL AMZN MSFT CRWV SMCI NBIS AI Bets Are Paying Off for Tech Giants 2026-08-13

CSQR New AI Data-Center Listing Has Room to Re-Rate 2026-08-13

AC.TO Air Canada Loyalty Stake Sale Unlocks Hidden Value 2026-08-13

Founder-Led Companies Can Deliver Outsized Returns 2026-08-13

OUST Digital lidar as a standalone robotics-perception bet 2026-08-13

TSEM LITE Silicon Photonics for AI Optical Interconnects 2026-08-13

POET Physical AI Stack and Optical Engines 2026-08-13

SMH Optics and AI Rally Invites Near-Term Volatility 2026-08-13

DLO dLocal's 2030 earnings power still underpriced 2026-08-13

ES=F Stay bullish above 7800 2026-08-13

ES=F Soft PPI and ES overnight support 2026-08-13

AEVA Aeva as a dual play on 4D LiDAR and hyperscaler optical sourcing 2026-08-13

Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-13

PARR HRTG AERO Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-13

WMG ROK NXRT CMI ADI JPM MCHP Income Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-13

MQ PARR DIOD HRTG AERO.MX Five Stocks Added to Strong Buy List 2026-08-13

QQQ QQQ Breakout Above 710 Unlocks Gap-Fill Rally 2026-08-13

BRR Illiquid Micro-Caps Do Not Belong in a Concentrated Book 2026-08-12

META Adding to Meta After Recycling Bumble Proceeds 2026-08-12

BMBL Bumble Position Fully Closed After a Deep Loss 2026-08-12

COHR LITE MRVL CRDO AAOI POET AEVA Silicon Photonics 2026-08-12

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