Precision-oncology data layer after a Phase 3 mRNA vaccine win

Conviction: 70% · Horizon: 3Y · 2026-08-19

Tempus is still a $20B business trading near $10B

Tempus Data and Applications is generating about $400M of FY26 revenue at roughly 40% growth and 73% gross margins, a SaaS-like profile that typically commands 12-15x sales, or $4.8-6B. Diagnostics is producing about $1.2B, and a conservative 10x versus Guardant at 13x adds $12B, for an $18-20B sum-of-the-parts versus just over $10B today. A successful Phase 3 personalized mRNA cancer vaccine from Moderna and Merck raises the strategic value of the genomic data, diagnostics, and MRD layer Tempus already supplies to that ecosystem.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
TEM	Long		The Data and Applications franchise already looks like a high-growth, high-margin software business, and the diagnostics book is large enough to support a double-digit sales multiple even after a haircut to Guardant. Together that still implies roughly twice the current market cap, while a commercial path for personalized mRNA vaccines increases demand for the genomic and monitoring infrastructure Tempus already operates.

Themes

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ECPG DK DVA THG PLOW JLL ADM Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

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OFG OFG Bancorp Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

TGT Target Earnings Estimate Momentum 2026-08-25

GECC BHP CAPL GSBC LCUT KSS MNR High-Yield Income Stocks With Improving Earnings Expectations 2026-08-24

ZIM FHI NVST Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-24

SNDR NESR OSCR CNC TAL Growth Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-24

NESR National Energy Services Earnings Momentum Builds 2026-08-24

FHI Federated Hermes Earnings Estimates Rise 2026-08-24

NVT nVent Electric Profit Outlook Improves 2026-08-24

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