Late-Summer Rotation and September Seasonal Weakness

Conviction: 65% · Horizon: 3M · 2026-08-20

September is historically the weakest month for US and Canadian equities

Long-run data show the S&P 500 averaging a 1.2% decline in September since 1928, the S&P/TSX Composite averaging a 1.4% drop since 1970, and both indexes losing about 1.2% in September over the past 25 years, even if the rest of the year can still finish higher.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
SPY	Short		We believe a short-duration underweight in US large-cap equities is warranted into September, the historically weakest calendar month, when the S&P 500 has averaged about a 1.2% decline.

Gold miners and energy stocks remain among the areas still making money

Investors have kept buying gold stocks, including quality producer Agnico Eagle, while energy shares have been bid up on lingering uncertainty around oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, even as parts of technology have been wobbly.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
AEM	Long		We believe high-quality gold producers are attracting capital as investors look for real-asset exposure while parts of technology remain unstable, and Agnico Eagle is a scaled miner leveraged to that bid.
XLE	Long		We believe lingering uncertainty over oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz supports energy prices, and the sector still looks inexpensive versus the rest of the market.

Themes

TXN GIII TPR TXO TGT OFG Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

ECPG DK DVA THG PLOW JLL ADM Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

NESR BE SANM NVDA PENN FIVE SNDR Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-25

ASMB Assembly Biosciences Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

IA Innovative Aerosystems Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

LQDT Liquidity Services Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

OFG OFG Bancorp Earnings Momentum 2026-08-25

TGT Target Earnings Estimate Momentum 2026-08-25

GECC BHP CAPL GSBC LCUT KSS MNR High-Yield Income Stocks With Improving Earnings Expectations 2026-08-24

ZIM FHI NVST Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-24

SNDR NESR OSCR CNC TAL Growth Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-24

NESR National Energy Services Earnings Momentum Builds 2026-08-24

FHI Federated Hermes Earnings Estimates Rise 2026-08-24

NVT nVent Electric Profit Outlook Improves 2026-08-24

CRI Carter's Earnings Outlook Strengthens 2026-08-24

CRD-B Crawford Earnings Estimates Climb 2026-08-24

CNR Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-24

Physical AI and Robotics as the Next Transformative Wave 2026-08-24

NVDA MU AI Chip Demand Supercycle Driven by Explosive Agent Token Consumption 2026-08-24

XLI US Industrial Sovereignty as Structural Multi-Year Outperformer 2026-08-24

NVDA AI Ecosystem Outperformance: Full-Stack Infrastructure, Agentic Economy, and AI Medicine 2026-08-24

GLD US Dollar Debasement via Treasury Buyback Expansion 2026-08-24

USMV Factor Rotation from Growth and Momentum to Value and Low Volatility 2026-08-24

CIBR Mission Critical Cybersecurity as a Non-Discretionary Growth Sector 2026-08-24

ALK GWRS AAT ELAN NOMD KEEL ZWS Insider Buying Cluster Across Airlines, Water, REITs, and Consumer Sectors 2026-08-24

AAOI AAOI Funding Model Evolution: From Equity Dilution to Customer-Funded Buildout 2026-08-24

SREMF US Government Signals Critical Minerals Investment Priorities 2026-08-24

AMZN NVDA AI Trade Is Not Over: Tech, Memory, and Cloud Giants Accelerating 2026-08-23

ASTS AST SpaceMobile: Speculative Swing Potential Against Deteriorating Fundamentals 2026-08-23

BABA BABA Pre-Earnings Bullish Setup With 3-to-1 Options Flow Dominance 2026-08-23

TLT Treasury's Bessent Put: Temporary Liquidity, Persistent Structural Risk 2026-08-23

ATEYY DELL HPE KIAXY MU SNDK NTAP Memory and Storage Sector in Early Innings of Secular Growth 2026-08-23

IWD Risk-On Market Regime Favors US Large-Cap Value 2026-08-23

GLD US Treasury Bond Buying Revives Currency Debasement Trade 2026-08-23

SLV BTC-USD Real Assets as Scarce Alternatives to Dollar-Denominated Claims 2026-08-23

TLT Global Capital Crowding Out 2026-08-23

VLO Diesel Crack Spread and Structural Goods Inflation 2026-08-23

COP Hidden CITGO refining value in ConocoPhillips 2026-08-20

QQQ SPY IWM KRE FAZ US Equity Momentum Turns Negative as Indexes Lose July Support 2026-08-20

WDAY CRM ADBE GTLB AI-Resilient Software and Takeover Support 2026-08-20

NVDA Anthropic's Revenue Surge and Software Displacement 2026-08-20

SPY AEM XLE Late-Summer Rotation and September Seasonal Weakness 2026-08-20

NBIS IREN CRWV Neocloud Re-Rating Toward AI Compute Valuations 2026-08-20

NFLX V MA ICE ALC SPGI Wide Moats in Streaming, Payments, Exchanges, and Data 2026-08-20

GOOGL LEN DHI Quality Tech and US Homebuilders as Core Holdings 2026-08-20

TLT CL=F ES=F Treasury Long-End Buybacks Are Not a Lasting Put Under Yields 2026-08-20

COHR LITE AAOI SMTC TSM GFS MRVL Optical links moving from the rack onto the GPU and HBM package 2026-08-20

Sticky long-end Treasury yields as a headwind for high-multiple AI names 2026-08-20

CCAP REFI Cannabis Lenders Insiders Validate Private-Credit Marks 2026-08-20

AAT ARE GLPI REIT Insiders Accumulate After Price Weakness 2026-08-20

DMLP MFP SGRY Mineral Royalties and Other Open-Market Insider Buys 2026-08-20

TEM Tempus AI Looks Cheap Versus a 12-Month Sum-of-Parts 2026-08-20

MP USAR ALOY Rare-Earth Magnets as the Humanoid Bottleneck 2026-08-20

CBRS Cerebras Looks Too Expensive 2026-08-20

MELI Mercado Libre is trading near-term margin for a compounding Latin American commerce flywheel 2026-08-20

TLT GLD SMH Treasury Stealth QE and the Bessent Put 2026-08-19

HL CTGO Silver as a Clear Market Theme 2026-08-19

TLT RSP Preemptive Treasury Rescue at Record Highs 2026-08-19

BIZD FXY Private Credit, Carry Trades, and Stablecoin Run Risk 2026-08-19

RRX RBC VPG OUST INDI 6324.T Humanoid robots reach public markets 2026-08-19

MRNA Multi-Year Accumulation Then Sudden Ten-Bagger Markup 2026-08-19

ES=F E-mini Dip Resistance Opens a Path to 8000 2026-08-19

TLT GLD US Treasury Steps In as Buyer of Last Resort for Long Bonds 2026-08-19

MRVL Google TPU Deal Puts a $206 Floor Under Marvell 2026-08-19

MP USAR ALOY Western Rare Earth Magnets as the Humanoid Bottleneck 2026-08-19

TEM Precision-oncology data layer after a Phase 3 mRNA vaccine win 2026-08-19

688836.SS 6324.T Humanoid robots become a public-market theme after Unitree lists 2026-08-19

NBIS A 5% pullback after a 270% one-year rally is noise 2026-08-19

FN Fabrinet Optical Capacity and Mix Shift 2026-08-19

ADTN Adtran Access Recovery and Huawei Displacement 2026-08-19

SMH CRM AI and Semiconductor Rotation into Software 2026-08-18

FN ADTN Optical Networking Add on AI Tape Weakness 2026-08-18

QQQ MU SNDK AMZN NVDA AI trade extends as QQQ bounce confirms and memory plays re-accelerate 2026-08-18

AMZN AWS Path to One Trillion in Annual Revenue 2026-08-18

OUST NVDA NBIS MRVL AAOI BE AI stocks that still look like good value 2026-08-18

Fabrinet Post-Earnings Dip Versus Stronger Data-Center Optics Outlook 2026-08-18

SPY Lifeless market waiting for a catalyst 2026-08-18

QQQ FAZ FNGD XLP Cap-Weighted Indexes Enter a Yellow-Risk Regime After a Mechanical Squeeze 2026-08-18

SPY TLT Rising Treasury Yields Near an Equity Pressure Point 2026-08-18

NVDA CBRS NVIDIA versus Cerebras on AI-chip valuation after a frothy IPO 2026-08-18

Amazon Retail and Ads Already Cover Most of the Market Cap 2026-08-18

PHYS China Capital Controls, Money Printing, and Gold 2026-08-14

SPY The Equity Bull Market Remains Intact 2026-08-13

GOOGL AMZN MSFT CRWV SMCI NBIS AI Bets Are Paying Off for Tech Giants 2026-08-13

CSQR New AI Data-Center Listing Has Room to Re-Rate 2026-08-13

AC.TO Air Canada Loyalty Stake Sale Unlocks Hidden Value 2026-08-13

Founder-Led Companies Can Deliver Outsized Returns 2026-08-13

OUST Digital lidar as a standalone robotics-perception bet 2026-08-13

TSEM LITE Silicon Photonics for AI Optical Interconnects 2026-08-13

POET Physical AI Stack and Optical Engines 2026-08-13

SMH Optics and AI Rally Invites Near-Term Volatility 2026-08-13

DLO dLocal's 2030 earnings power still underpriced 2026-08-13

ES=F Stay bullish above 7800 2026-08-13

ES=F Soft PPI and ES overnight support 2026-08-13

AEVA Aeva as a dual play on 4D LiDAR and hyperscaler optical sourcing 2026-08-13

Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-13

PARR HRTG AERO Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-13

WMG ROK NXRT CMI ADI JPM MCHP Income Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-13

MQ PARR DIOD HRTG AERO.MX Five Stocks Added to Strong Buy List 2026-08-13

QQQ QQQ Breakout Above 710 Unlocks Gap-Fill Rally 2026-08-13

BRR Illiquid Micro-Caps Do Not Belong in a Concentrated Book 2026-08-12

META Adding to Meta After Recycling Bumble Proceeds 2026-08-12

BMBL Bumble Position Fully Closed After a Deep Loss 2026-08-12

COHR LITE MRVL CRDO AAOI POET AEVA Silicon Photonics 2026-08-12

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