Optics and AI Rally Invites Near-Term Volatility

Conviction: 65% · Horizon: 3M · 2026-08-13
Stay long optics and AI, but raise cash and hedges after an aggressive move

Optics and AI-linked names have already priced a sharp advance. That kind of aggressive move usually brings a volatility spike and a downside shakeout, so the durable stance is to remain long the structural AI-optics cycle while holding more cash and adding hedges instead of chasing extended prices.

Instrument Side Target Reason
SMH Long We believe the AI compute and optics complex remains a structural long even after a sharp run, because data-center interconnect and accelerator demand has not been exhausted. A pullback would be a chance to add rather than a signal that the cycle is over.

Themes

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