Google TPU Deal Puts a $206 Floor Under Marvell

Conviction: 72% · Horizon: 7Y · 2026-08-19

A $206 warrant floor and ~$18B peak annual custom-silicon revenue justify owning Marvell

Google received warrants to buy up to about 59 million Marvell shares at $206.58, with most vesting as it purchases custom silicon through FY2033. That strike functions as a customer-backed valuation floor. Vesting in 240 tranches of $500 million of qualifying product revenue implies up to about $120 billion of purchases over roughly 6.5 years, or around $18 billion a year at the high end, across inference accelerators, storage, networking, and near-memory chips attached to the TPU stack.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
MRVL	Long		Google locking a $206.58 warrant strike on Marvell and tying most of the vest to custom-product purchases through FY2033 puts a customer-backed floor under the stock while implying a multi-year silicon runway that can approach ~$18B of annual revenue at the high end. That mix of a hard floor and TPU-adjacent attach (inference, storage, networking, near-memory) supports owning Marvell as the partnership ramps, even if the peak revenue figure is not the base case.

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