Aeva as a dual play on 4D LiDAR and hyperscaler optical sourcing
Risked optics and perception scale can re-rate Aeva about 3x by 2029
Aeva is becoming a two-segment story rather than a pure 4D LiDAR venture. The perception business remains pre-scale and economically tough, but frequency-modulated 4D LiDAR measures velocity directly and should produce better Physical AI training data, with analyst FY29 revenue around $522M. Separately, a joint development agreement to put Aeva technology into a near-packaged optic for a major hyperscaler, with first volumes in 2027 and a multi-million-unit production ramp in 2028, can add hundreds of millions of annual revenue at roughly 40% EBITDA margins. After 60-80% risking of combined ~$822M FY29 sales, dilution to just over 100M shares, and a 12x multiple in line with optical and LiDAR peers, the implied price is about $78.
| Instrument | Side | Target | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEVA | Long | 78 | Aeva's 4D LiDAR can measure velocity directly and should generate better Physical AI training data, but standalone LiDAR economics remain weak. The new CPO/NPO optical-source path, via a joint development deal to integrate Aeva technology into a near-packaged optic for a major hyperscaler, with initial volumes in 2027 and a multi-million-unit ramp in 2028, can add $300-400M of ~40% EBITDA-margin revenue by 2029-2030. Combined with ~$522M of perception revenue, 60-80% risking, dilution to ~100M shares, and a 12x sales multiple in line with optical and LiDAR peers supports about $78, roughly a 3x from current levels. |
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