A 5% pullback after a 270% one-year rally is noise

Conviction: 70% · Horizon: 4Y · 2026-08-19

A 5% pre-market drop does not unwind Nebius 2030 contracted-capacity math

Nebius is down about 5% after a roughly 270% one-year gain. That is profit-taking, not a broken thesis. Contracted capacity toward 5 GW by end-2026, mid-term ACV of about $20-25M versus a prior ~$12M, a 2030 connected-capacity case near 5.2 GW at a blended ~$14M ARR per MW, and EBITDA margins near 45% still map to hundreds of billions of enterprise value versus ~$78B today. A ~$40 fade from a recent high is noise against that ramp.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
NBIS	Long		A 5% pre-market drop is trivial against a 270% one-year gain and a 2030 path in which contracted gigawatt-scale capacity, ~$14M ARR per MW, and ~45% EBITDA margins can support an enterprise value several times the current ~$78B. Selling because the name is ~$40 off a recent high treats a winner as a failed trade.

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