Silicon Photonics

Conviction: 75% · Horizon: 3Y · 2026-08-12
Optical interconnects displace copper as AI clusters hit bandwidth and power walls

GPU-scale AI clusters are outgrowing copper for rack- and campus-scale data movement. Co-packaged optics, silicon-photonics transceivers, and high-speed SerDes become the next capacity bottleneck after accelerators, lifting demand for lasers, optical engines, and connectivity silicon.

Instrument Side Target Reason
COHR Long Coherent has industrial scale in indium-phosphide lasers, transceivers, and photonic materials that sit at the core of next-generation optical modules.
LITE Long Lumentum is a scaled supplier of high-power lasers and optical components used in data-center transceivers, so it captures the laser bottleneck as 800G and 1.6T silicon-photonics ramps.
MRVL Long Marvell's DSP, PAM4, and custom connectivity silicon sit between GPUs and optical engines, so co-packaged optics and 1.6T ramps flow through its data-center franchise.
CRDO Long Credo's high-speed SerDes, active electrical cables, and optical DSP products are built for short-reach, high-bandwidth links that copper can no longer serve economically.
AAOI Long Applied Optoelectronics is a more concentrated transceiver manufacturer whose earnings torque harder if 800G and 1.6T module volumes surprise to the upside.
POET Long POET's optical interposer aims to cut the cost and complexity of photonic engines, but customer adoption and manufacturing scale remain earlier-stage than at incumbent module makers.
AEVA Long Aeva applies silicon-photonics FMCW sensing mainly in automotive LiDAR, making it a leveraged, less proven way to own the photonics stack outside the data-center core.

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