Nvidia Valuation Reset to 2018 Levels

Conviction: 70% · Horizon: 2Y · 2026-04-05
Nvidia trades at 18.7x forward earnings — its cheapest multiple since 2018 — driven by earnings growth, not multiple compression

Despite a 60% gain over the past year and +1,170% over 5 years, Nvidia's forward P/E has compressed to 18.7x — a level last seen in 2018. The re-rating reflects explosive earnings growth rather than speculative multiple expansion, making the current price attractive relative to AI-driven earnings power.

Instrument Side Target Reason
NVDA Long We believe Nvidia at 18.7x forward earnings is a compelling entry point. The pullback has reset the valuation to historically low multiples while the AI infrastructure buildout remains intact. The repricing is fear-driven, not fundamentals-driven, and we expect earnings to continue justifying a materially higher multiple.

Themes

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2026-04-15 Dividend Growth Investing In Challenging Markets
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2026-04-14 Policy Intervention V-Shaped Meltup
2026-04-14 Broad Market Risk-On Reacceleration
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2026-04-14 AI neocloud and data center infrastructure scarcity
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2026-04-14 AI infrastructure momentum with broad market upside nearing resistance
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2026-04-03 Oil shock strengthens the case for energy and value
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