Tiny float and index rules forced mandatory buying at the peak; a published lockup calendar will flood the market with insider supply onto a retail-heavy holder base while fundamentals support a far lower price.

SpaceX listed with less than 5% tradable float at more than 90x revenue despite never having turned a profit and nearly $5 billion in losses last year. Nasdaq and Russell rule changes fast-tracked inclusion, forcing an estimated $7+ billion of passive buying into the tightest float. Roughly 30% of the offering went to retail versus a typical 10%, creating over 4,400 employee paper millionaires. Staggered lockups release about 44% of the company for sale by early September, expanding tradable float by roughly 900%, with the largest tranche tied to Q3 earnings and full 180-day expiry on December 8; Musk’s 42% stake unlocks June 12, 2027. Starlink is the only reliably profitable segment (~$1.2B operating income last quarter); serious fair-value work points near $30 per share versus a multi-trillion narrative valuation. Price has already given back the post-IPO squeeze and trades below the opening print.