Emerging market domestic demand compounders

Conviction: 78% · Horizon: 3Y · 2026-06-17
Domestic emerging market leaders can re-rate as AI momentum cools

High-quality consumer, fintech and digital platform businesses in developing markets have sold off despite strong revenue growth, improving profitability, buybacks and better capital discipline. Lower oil prices, easier local monetary policy, a weaker dollar and a rotation away from crowded AI-linked semiconductor exposure could support a multi-year re-rating.

Instrument Side Target Reason
SE Long Revenue growth remains strong while the share price has materially de-rated, creating room for multiple expansion if profitability and capital returns continue to improve.
MELI Long The business combines fast revenue growth with structural exposure to Latin American commerce and financial inclusion, while the valuation has compressed despite resilient fundamentals.
GRAB Long Southeast Asian mobility, delivery and financial services demand can benefit from easing inflation and lower funding costs, while improving EBITDA supports a stronger equity case.
NU Long Rapid revenue growth, high profitability and a large buyback program point to a scalable digital banking franchise with improving capital discipline.
DLO Long Accelerating payment volume growth, the end of a reinvestment cycle and shareholder returns through buybacks and dividends can support a recovery in valuation.

Themes

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