Liquidity Can Keep U.S. Equities Elevated Despite Fed Transition Risk

Conviction: 63% · Horizon: 3M · 2026-06-20
Abundant liquidity and passive flows can overpower bearish macro risks in the short term

U.S. equities face risks from high valuations, inflation, energy costs, geopolitical tension, and a historically weak pattern after new Fed leadership. However, deep market liquidity, strong demand for corporate debt, passive inflows, and expectations of policy support can keep prices elevated longer than bearish investors expect.

Instrument Side Target Reason
SPY Long We believe excess liquidity, resilient credit demand, and persistent passive equity inflows can support broad U.S. equities over the next quarter, even as valuation and macro risks raise the probability of sharp volatility.

Themes

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