Monetary policy squeeze and global carry-trade risk

Conviction: 72% · Horizon: 3M · 2026-05-22

Equity markets face downside risk from inflation, debt costs, political pressure, and yen carry-trade stress

Persistent inflation limits the ability to cut rates, while high short-term debt makes further hikes costly. Treasury bill issuance may keep liquidity loose, but policy conflict and rising Japanese yields increase the risk of a sharp volatility event.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
SPY	Short		We believe equity risk is asymmetric because inflation limits monetary easing, debt-service pressure constrains rate hikes, and Japanese yield stress could force a disorderly unwind of leveraged carry trades.

Themes

Permissioned Dollar Infrastructure 2026-05-24

Momentum growth stocks break out across speculative technology themes 2026-05-24

Government capital accelerates the quantum computing trade 2026-05-24

Higher bond yields pressure equity valuations 2026-05-24

Semiconductor pullback looks like consolidation before renewed leadership 2026-05-24

AI infrastructure as a multi-year capital cycle 2026-05-23

Strategic scandium supply scarcity 2026-05-23

Silver and precious metals miners watchlist 2026-05-23

Stagflation regime shift 2026-05-23

Precision timing infrastructure for space and quantum systems 2026-05-23

HL Hecla Mining as a focused silver exposure 2026-05-23

SSLN.L Silver exposure through a physically backed exchange-traded product 2026-05-23

SH Leverage and Inflation Raise Drawdown Risk 2026-05-23

SPY Liquidity Suppression Can Extend the Equity Rally 2026-05-23

QUAL Quality Compounders Become More Attractive During Selloffs 2026-05-23

CRDO Credo remains an AI connectivity optics play 2026-05-23

INTC CSCO DDOG FTNT DOCN QCOM COP AI Infrastructure and Software Rotation 2026-05-23

CTGO HL Silver miners with asymmetric upside 2026-05-23

MU RKLB META HOOD RIVN Concentrated growth portfolio with selective profit taking 2026-05-22

RGTI ASTS NVTS RDW BB ENPH FCEL Speculative technology momentum is accelerating across small-cap growth stocks 2026-05-22

SREMF Scandium Junior Miner Momentum 2026-05-22

VSH VSH Supported by Major Earnings Estimate Upgrades 2026-05-22

SGML SGML Benefits From Strong Earnings Revision Momentum 2026-05-22

ASIC ASIC Backed by Improving Insurance Earnings Outlook 2026-05-22

HCSG HCSG Gains Support From Higher Profit Estimates 2026-05-22

FOXA FOXA Supported by Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-22

RKLB Rocket Lab profit-taking after a major rally 2026-05-22

UVE THG Value Insurance Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-05-22

GOOGL Berkshire Portfolio Rotation Toward Alphabet 2026-05-22

UVE THG TXN Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Expectations 2026-05-22

Fox Corporation Combines Earnings Momentum With Relative Strength 2026-05-22

Vishay Intertechnology Shows Strong Momentum 2026-05-22

Sigma Lithium Gains On Improving Earnings Outlook 2026-05-22

SMTC CRDO AMBA Optical Networking Semiconductor Momentum 2026-05-22

SPY Monetary policy squeeze and global carry-trade risk 2026-05-22

OUST NBIS Momentum in lidar and AI infrastructure growth stocks 2026-05-22

AXSM Momentum breakout candidates in a broadening bull market 2026-05-22

Software selloff creates value opportunities 2026-05-22

FEIM as an undervalued space infrastructure play 2026-05-22

USO UCO BNO Oil Supply Shock And Inventory Drawdown 2026-05-22

VLO DK PBI Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Expectations 2026-05-21

Green Plains Profit Expectations Rebound Sharply 2026-05-21

EOG Resources Earnings Estimates Improve 2026-05-21

Momentum Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-05-21

Quality compounders on market selloffs 2026-05-21

Fed Chair Transition Creates Short-Term Volatility But Not A Bearish Regime 2026-05-21

U.S. government funding could accelerate quantum computing stocks 2026-05-21

NVDA AI infrastructure leaders still have upside 2026-05-21

SHOP CRM INTU Fallen growth stocks with analyst support 2026-05-21

Mega-cap private tech IPOs require cash-flow discipline 2026-05-21

VLO C FDX Earnings revisions identify value and momentum stocks 2026-05-21

LAES QNC.NE Cybersecurity Stocks Rally on Rising Security Demand 2026-05-21

NBIS OUST AI Infrastructure Stocks Show Strong Momentum 2026-05-21

DVA TAL LCUT Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates and Attractive PEG Ratios 2026-05-21

GPRE DVA SNX Value stocks with improving earnings outlooks 2026-05-21

UPBD EOG ARKO Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-21

SNEX FLYW EOG Resources Earnings Estimates Move Higher 2026-05-21

Flywire Earnings Outlook Strengthens 2026-05-21

Green Plains Sees Sharp Earnings Estimate Improvement 2026-05-21

Murphy USA Earnings Outlook Strengthens 2026-05-21

StoneX Benefits From Improving Earnings Expectations 2026-05-21

ONTO Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Expectations 2026-05-21

RGTI Volatile upside setup in quantum computing stocks 2026-05-21

RGTI Order Flow Support in Rigetti Computing 2026-05-21

Quantum Computing Stocks Rally on Expected U.S. Funding 2026-05-21

Small Long Position in Itron 2026-05-21

Silver Demand From AI Infrastructure 2026-05-21

Profitable AI tokens turn compute into revenue infrastructure 2026-05-21

Physical AI increases the value of edge inference 2026-05-21

NVDA Short-term constructive momentum in U.S. equities 2026-05-21

KSS Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Expectations 2026-05-20

Income stocks with rising earnings estimates and above-average yields 2026-05-20

LITE UCTT AMAT CAPL Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-20

Momentum Leaders in Photonics and Semiconductor Equipment 2026-05-20

LITE GLW CIEN AI optical networking supply chain watchlist 2026-05-20

SARK TZA Policy headlines can overpower market fundamentals 2026-05-20

ADC DRS AMRZ CVBF ELAN Insider buying highlights selective undervaluation in U.S. equities 2026-05-20

QQQ Higher-for-longer yields pressure risk assets 2026-05-20

RKLB Rocket Lab Valuation Risk 2026-05-20

LITE UCTT AMAT Photonics and Semiconductor Momentum Picks 2026-05-20

KFS ACP.WA PRM Small, Cheap Companies Can Compound Into Multibaggers 2026-05-20

USO UCO BNO Oil supply shock and inventory drawdown 2026-05-20

Chinese quick commerce resets after subsidy cuts and food safety enforcement 2026-05-20

Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-20

Three Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-05-20

High-Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-20

LITE Lumentum positioned for optical infrastructure demand 2026-05-20

Bread Financial Benefits From Stronger Earnings Expectations 2026-05-20

Ultra Clean Gains From Sharply Higher Earnings Forecasts 2026-05-20

Mach Natural Resources Sees Major Earnings Upgrade 2026-05-20

Sanmina Shows Positive Earnings Estimate Revisions 2026-05-20

HG Hamilton Insurance Shows Improving Earnings Momentum 2026-05-20

Semiconductor valuations face duration risk from rising rates 2026-05-20

LTPZ GLD Locking in long-term real yields 2026-05-19

Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates and Attractive Valuations 2026-05-19

Value Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-19

Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Expectations 2026-05-19

Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-05-19

VIG Dividend Growth Stocks as Long-Term Compounders 2026-05-19

GLD U.S. Treasury Collateral Fragility 2026-05-19

LAES QNC.V Quantum-Resistant Cybersecurity Demand 2026-05-19

SANM Growth stocks with improving earnings estimates and attractive PEG ratios 2026-05-19

Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-05-19

Lifetime Brands Earnings Estimates Move Higher 2026-05-19

FGI Industries Profit Expectations Strengthen 2026-05-19

CrossAmerica Partners Earnings Outlook Improves Sharply 2026-05-19

Higher long-term rates 2026-05-19

Oil price shock risk 2026-05-19

CrossAmerica Partners Shows Sharp Earnings Revision Momentum 2026-05-19

Vishay Intertechnology Shows Strong Momentum and Rising Earnings Expectations 2026-05-19

Warner Music Group Benefits from Improving Earnings Expectations and Positive Momentum 2026-05-19

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