Stagflation regime shift

Conviction: 72% · Horizon: 2Y · 2026-05-23
Inflation pressure and slowing growth leave the Fed with no easy policy path

Rising input costs, weak services activity, slow GDP growth and elevated inflation create a stagflationary backdrop in which rate cuts could fuel inflation while further tightening could pressure richly valued equities.

Instrument Side Target Reason
GLD Long We believe gold can benefit from persistent inflation, weaker real growth and declining confidence in the ability of monetary policy to stabilize both prices and asset valuations.

Themes

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