AAOI downside bounded under bear-case assumptions

Conviction: 58% · Horizon: 3Y · 2026-07-02
Bear case on AAOI still leaves meaningful equity value

Even with overstated guidance, delayed capacity buildout, and a lower valuation multiple after lost management credibility, valuing fiscal 2028 revenue at half of the bullish target implies the stock may not fall much further from here.

Instrument Side Target Reason
AAOI Long Optical connectivity demand for AI data centers supports a revenue path that can absorb a halved FY28 outlook and a credibility-driven multiple reset without implying catastrophic equity impairment.

Themes

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