Energy and resource equities lead in an inflationary regime

Conviction: 82% · Horizon: 18M · 2026-05-25
Energy equities should rerate as inflation, underinvestment and low ownership collide

Energy remains a small share of major equity indices despite improving free cash flow, capital discipline and inflation sensitivity. If institutions rebuild exposure, producers, services, drillers and midstream assets can benefit from both earnings growth and multiple expansion.

Instrument Side Target Reason
XLE Long Energy equities combine inflation protection, disciplined capital allocation and low index ownership, creating room for a broad sector rerating.
OIH Long Energy services should benefit as sustaining and expanding oil production requires more drilling and field activity after years of underinvestment.
SSRM Long Strong gold prices, high margins, asset simplification and buybacks can drive equity value in a miner trading at a modest earnings multiple.

Themes

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