Real yields and disciplined liquidity replace the traditional 60/40 portfolio

Conviction: 74% · Horizon: 2Y · 2026-05-25
Inflation-linked bonds and short-term Treasury bills offer better risk-adjusted ballast than long nominal bonds

Sticky inflation and fiscal pressure reduce the defensive value of long nominal bonds. TIPS and short-term Treasury bills provide positive real yield, inflation protection and liquidity while preserving optionality during market stress.

Instrument Side Target Reason
TIP Long Positive real yields with explicit inflation linkage provide attractive sovereign exposure when oil shocks and policy uncertainty threaten nominal bonds.
BIL Long Treasury bills preserve liquidity and earn competitive short-term yield while avoiding duration losses in a sticky-inflation environment.

Themes

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