Higher-for-longer rates pressure duration assets

Conviction: 70% · Horizon: 18M · 2026-05-25
Rate expectations are shifting toward fewer cuts and possible hikes

Persistent inflation pressure and a less accommodative Federal Reserve path reduce the margin of safety for long-duration bonds and valuation-sensitive equities.

Instrument Side Target Reason
TLT Short We believe long-duration Treasuries remain vulnerable if markets continue repricing toward sticky inflation, fewer rate cuts, and a higher terminal-rate path.

Themes

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