Quality factor lags in an AI-driven market exaggeration phase

Conviction: 82% · Horizon: 10Y · 2026-07-14
Staying with quality compounders through underperformance beats switching into momentum at the peak of speculation

In 2026, quality is the worst-performing equity factor while AI-linked names soar and risky stocks trade at highs versus the S&P 500 as safer names hit relative lows. The setup mirrors 1998–2000, when the Nasdaq rose sharply while quality-oriented holders such as Berkshire and Fairfax lagged badly before outperforming after the bubble. Short-term prices vote on sentiment; long-term they track intrinsic value and rising free cash flow from durable moats, healthy balance sheets, and growing earnings. Chasing ETFs and momentum after a extended run risks locking in the wrong strategy at the wrong time.

Instrument Side Target Reason
BRK-B Long We believe that when speculative factors dominate, businesses with durable cash generation, conservative financing, and long compounding track records tend to regain relative performance after euphoria fades, consistent with how quality-oriented compounders recovered following prior tech bubbles.

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