AI Capex Supercycle and Undervalued Co-Packaged Optics

Conviction: 72% · Horizon: 3Y · 2026-07-16
CPO is a 2027-2029 AI infrastructure story trading at less than 3x 2027 sales

Global AI capex is projected to exceed $1 trillion next year, yet co-packaged optics remains a multi-year buildout into 2027-2029. Selected CPO-linked semiconductor and optical names still trade below 3x 2027 revenues while those revenues are expected to grow, implying the market has not fully priced the later-cycle bandwidth and interconnect upgrade.

Instrument Side Target Reason
AAOI Long Applied Optoelectronics is leveraged to the multi-year CPO and optical interconnect buildout as AI clusters scale bandwidth; at a sub-3x 2027 revenue multiple with growing sales, the risk-reward favors ownership into the 2027-2029 deployment window.
CRDO Long Credo supplies high-speed connectivity silicon critical to AI rack-scale networking; with AI capex still ramping and CPO timelines into 2027-2029, a valuation under 3x 2027 revenues underprices durable growth in serdes and optical DSP demand.
MRVL Long Marvell is a core supplier of custom AI silicon, networking, and optical DSP solutions; as the AI cycle moves from early GPU spend into denser interconnect and CPO, exposure at a modest 2027 revenue multiple offers asymmetric upside into the mid-decade upgrade cycle.
LITE Long Lumentum is a leading optical component vendor positioned for AI-driven bandwidth growth and CPO adoption through 2027-2029; trading below 3x forward 2027 sales while revenues grow leaves room for multiple expansion as hyperscaler optical spend accelerates.

Themes

AAOI CRDO MRVL LITE AI Capex Supercycle and Undervalued Co-Packaged Optics 2026-07-16
MU ES=F Localized AI and memory carnage amid resilient broader market 2026-07-16
ABCL TEM LLY Healthcare and Biotech Inflection via AI and Capital Rotation 2026-07-16
GLD Gold Bid Ahead of China Stimulus 2026-07-16
OUST Ouster Lidar Opportunity After Selloff 2026-07-16
MSFT V Traditional Defensive Stocks No Longer Protect Portfolios 2026-07-16
VTI VXUS Financial Assets Beat Cash and Housing for Building Wealth 2026-07-16
AMZN UBER AAPL Concentrated Bets and Shared Favorites Among Top Investors 2026-07-16
AVGO CRWD ARM NET AMD PLTR MSFT Street Sees Explosive Free Cash Flow Growth Ahead 2026-07-16
TUR Turkey as a Deep-Value Equity Market After Foreign Capital Flight 2026-07-16
NBIS NBIS Not an Overnight Business-Model Pivot 2026-07-16
LMND LLY TEM TMDX UNH AMD MU Selective Strength in AI Infrastructure Amid Overextension Signals 2026-07-16
GLW ADTN LTPH AMSSY MXL COHR Photonics and optical interconnect megatrend 2026-07-16
Nebius asset-light AI cloud partner model 2026-07-16
IGV Sector Rotation From AI Hardware Into Software and China Internet 2026-07-15
AEHR AI-adjacent names at suppressed levels into earnings 2026-07-15
SPCX SPCX trading below IPO price 2026-07-15
QQQ GOOGL Corporate Buyback Bid Is Missing Despite Record Announcements 2026-07-15
NBIS Neo-cloud consolidation around AI infrastructure winners 2026-07-15
GGAL Argentine Bank Director Accumulates to a Round Three Million Shares 2026-07-15
YEXT Software Insider Steps Into Out-of-Favor Yext Near Five Dollars 2026-07-15
DLR MSFT NDAQ Dividend Stocks With the Largest Wall Street Upside 2026-07-15
NVDA NVIDIA next-gen AI rack roadmap still on track 2026-07-15
Unbounded AI Productivity Gains 2026-07-15
NVDA AI-Driven Expansion of Global GDP 2026-07-15
ASML Semiconductor Equipment Demand Strength 2026-07-15
AEHR Test Systems AI and Photonics Demand Surge 2026-07-15
COHR TER ISRG AI Opportunities Beyond What Markets Have Priced In 2026-07-15
SPY Short-term equity bounce into week-end 2026-07-15
TAN Solar leads a broad-risk-on session with strong market breadth 2026-07-14
SPY Softer-than-expected CPI fuels US equity rally ahead of PPI 2026-07-14
IWM US small caps extend 2026 year-to-date leadership 2026-07-14
GLD Gold price as the global maximum of monetary and commodity use values 2026-07-14
AAOI Optical networking supplier rides datacenter and AI connectivity demand 2026-07-14
TIP VNQ ARCC Thirty-year real yields at crisis-era levels while risk assets stay euphoric 2026-07-14
TLT NVDA XLY Disinflation narrative pivot and rotation away from AI and debasement trades 2026-07-14
Gradual accumulation in optical networking equities 2026-07-14
CRDO OUST LMND SEI SVM Conviction accumulation in asymmetric growth and cyclical names 2026-07-14
LLY MU Megacap opportunities outside SMID-cap focus 2026-07-14
AAOI MU Hyperscaler capital expenditure surge to $1.4 trillion by 2028 2026-07-14
TMDX TransMedics selloff despite CEO insider buying and durable growth 2026-07-14
SHLS Solar BOS leader rerating after street target lift 2026-07-14
HP The World Is Running Out of Places to Get Oil in a Hurry 2026-07-14
TKR 6481.T Robotics actuator and bearing components 2026-07-14
ATNI Last independent subsea fiber in a Malone-dominated state 2026-07-14
SBUX PLOW LXFR JD TGT Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-07-14
FAF ALRS PGY GDOT ECPG CMCO PEB Value Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-07-14
DVA FIVE PBI ALH.AQ SCCO NESR Three Growth Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-07-14
GECC ORLA HTLD MEOH NCNO JD BWAY Earnings Estimate Momentum Across Five Newly Highlighted Stocks 2026-07-14
BRK-B Quality factor lags in an AI-driven market exaggeration phase 2026-07-14
TransMedics trades below 4x revenue for the first time 2026-07-14
KEYS LFUS LITE UCTT AMAT CAPL VSH Three Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-07-13
FXY The end of structural yen devaluation 2026-07-13
MSFT SHV AI capex, wealth effect, and Fed policy form a fragile circular loop 2026-07-13
OpenAI-specific funding stress rather than a broad AI sector bubble 2026-07-13
VT Passive giant ownership and invisible futures reshape equity risk premia 2026-07-13
GLD Bond credibility fades and gold replaces Treasuries as collateral of choice 2026-07-13
SHY RSP US growth and portfolios hinge on a single AI factor 2026-07-13
QQQ TLT Tactical 10–20% correction with rotation from new-era leaders to the broad market 2026-07-13
DHI Sunbelt housing freeze breaks into distressed crash pricing 2026-07-13
XLE Strait of Hormuz disruption reprices oil toward $80–$90 with recession tail at $140 2026-07-13
LEU CRDO OUST USAR AAOI NBIS TEM High-conviction equities through short-term drawdowns 2026-07-13
AVGO AMD PLTR MRVL LITE NBIS SPCX High-growth screen — revenue and EBITDA compounders 2026-07-13
UCO USO BNO Oil prices disconnected from extreme supply risk and inventory tightness 2026-07-13
Leveraged ETFs and daily-reset volatility decay 2026-07-13
TLT End of the yen devaluation regime 2026-07-13
NVDA MU AAOI Hyperscaler AI capital expenditure surge leaves semiconductor and optical names cheap on pullbacks 2026-07-13
TEM Tempus AI data and applications revenue scale 2026-07-13
RBC Robotics actuator and bearing components as the primary BOM leverage in humanoid growth 2026-07-13
URA SMR DNN Uranium sector pullback as a multi-decade entry 2026-07-13
LEU Uranium enrichment equity priced at a steep growth premium 2026-07-13
MU QQQ Passive flows and benchmark concentration have structurally broken buy-and-hold returns and active stock picking 2026-07-13
XLE Hormuz closure and oil shock with equity bull trend still intact 2026-07-13
XBI CIBR Leadership broadens from AI hardware into biotech and cybersecurity 2026-07-13
ROKU M&A locks Roku out of momentum investing 2026-07-13
NVDA MU UPST RDDT APP ZETA PLTR PEG ratios on two-year forward earnings growth 2026-07-13
NVGN.MX Neurorepair value shifts from copyable peptides to mapped, monetizable functional outcomes 2026-07-13
The dramatic attention filter in markets and life 2026-07-13
Megacap tech indexes lead while small caps lag 2026-07-13
MELI Latin American e-commerce and fintech platform leadership 2026-07-13
Retail leverage euphoria as a late-cycle warning 2026-07-13
ZTS Fund flows force quality managers to trade; markets price forward growth 2026-07-13
SOXX XBI KWEB ARKK MSOS Q2 earnings season and multi-timeframe sector rotation 2026-07-12
IWD Risk-on regime with tactical US value overweight 2026-07-12
IEV EWJ Developed international equities on cyclical upswing 2026-07-12
SPY Thirteen-year secular bull market may still have years to run 2026-07-12
XLE Energy tape weak unless trend resistance is reclaimed 2026-07-12
SMTI ASTS Satellite and niche growth names emerging as relative value 2026-07-12
KRE IWM Small-cap and cyclical leadership rotation 2026-07-12
XBI Biotech sector shows topping behavior after extended run 2026-07-12
MAGS SMH Semiconductor complex near-term repair phase 2026-07-12
TLT Rates and bonds skew toward higher yields with choppy paths 2026-07-12
QQQ SPY Historic bull market with broad index flag breakouts 2026-07-12
EWY South Korea beta loss threatens high-beta global risk appetite 2026-07-12
LLY MU NVDA Large-cap growth names trading below intrinsic pipeline and earnings power 2026-07-12
BRK-B Speculative momentum vs undervalued quality compounders 2026-07-12
MU Semiconductor memory at cyclical profit peak 2026-07-12
PYPL CHTR ADBE MU Deep value investing amid semiconductor and AI overvaluation 2026-07-12
CRM Salesforce valuation versus agentic AI transition 2026-07-12
ONDS Legitimate ultra-high-growth equities through 2028 2026-07-12
6954.T US AI model leadership does not guarantee robotics dominance 2026-07-12
SPCX SpaceX IPO as manufactured exit liquidity for insiders 2026-07-12
USO VLO Macro rotation overshadows AI as oil and refiners lead 2026-07-11
ILF Latin American currency outperformance and a new regional cycle 2026-07-11
SREMF Early stake in Summit Ridge energy vehicle 2026-07-11
EVC Entravision ad-tech growth and hidden asset value 2026-07-11
MAGS Magnificent Seven may be regaining market leadership 2026-07-11
VZ MAIN WES IIPR-PA Sustainable high yield outside efficient large-cap coverage 2026-07-11
NVDL Single-stock leveraged ETFs reshape equity market plumbing 2026-07-11
Sell-side research aligns with desk inventory and flow, not pure discovery 2026-07-11
AI trade narratives track liquidity and momentum more than fundamentals 2026-07-11
SHY Money flows and rule changes keep rewiring market infrastructure 2026-07-11
US equities regain footing above key moving averages 2026-07-11
MRVL DELL AMD VRT Hardware and AI infrastructure leaders lead a narrow high-conviction watchlist 2026-07-11
Bloom Energy short thesis scrutiny 2026-07-11
SREMF NB.V Non-Chinese scandium supply chain 2026-07-11
6981.T 009150.KS AI data center power at the rack — socket economics and component moats 2026-07-11
ORCL Oracle on the brink of junk credit amid AI infrastructure spending 2026-07-10

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