Higher long-term rates

Conviction: 58% · Horizon: 6M · 2026-05-19
Treasury yields can break higher as policy options narrow

Long-duration bonds face downside risk if inflation pressure, fiscal concerns, and constrained central-bank policy push 10-year and 30-year yields above current market expectations.

Instrument Side Target Reason
TLT Short We believe long-duration Treasuries are vulnerable if inflation and fiscal risk keep term premia elevated and force yields higher.

Themes

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