Quantum computing innovation cycle

Conviction: 55% · Horizon: 10Y · 2026-06-12
Quantum computing adoption could create large upside for specialized compute and enabling hardware companies

Quantum computing remains early and timing is uncertain, but breakthroughs over the next decade could create substantial demand for pure-play quantum platforms and the semiconductor equipment, foundry, and hardware supply chain that supports them.

Instrument Side Target Reason
IONQ Long IonQ offers direct exposure to the commercialization of quantum computing, where successful adoption could produce high revenue growth from a small base.
RGTI Long Rigetti provides high-beta exposure to quantum hardware development, with meaningful upside if scalable quantum systems gain commercial traction.
QUBT Long Quantum Computing Inc. offers speculative exposure to applied quantum technologies and could benefit if enterprise demand for quantum-enabled solutions accelerates.
QBTS Long D-Wave provides exposure to quantum annealing and enterprise quantum services, which could re-rate if practical optimization use cases expand.
FORM Long FormFactor could benefit from increased demand for advanced testing and measurement infrastructure needed by next-generation compute and semiconductor hardware.
GFS Long GlobalFoundries offers enabling exposure to semiconductor manufacturing capacity that could support specialized hardware demand tied to quantum and advanced computing.
Quantum computing may become a major technology platform over the next decade

Quantum computing remains early and uncertain, but progress in hardware, error correction, and specialized algorithms could create substantial long-term upside for companies exposed to the ecosystem.

Instrument Side Target Reason
QTUM Long We believe diversified exposure to quantum computing and adjacent enabling technologies offers a better risk profile than betting on a single early-stage winner in an uncertain but potentially large innovation cycle.

Themes

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