Netflix at multi-year low multiples after a near-50% drawdown
Netflix can still deliver double-digit EPS growth via price power, ads, and operating leverage even as subscriber growth slows
After a near-50% share-price decline, Netflix trades near post-Covid levels while EPS is up roughly 180%, leaving the stock around 22–26x earnings—among the cheapest PE levels in its modern history. Subscriber growth has decelerated and password-sharing crackdowns are a one-time lever, so future revenue growth likely leans on modest annual price hikes, advertising, bundling, and international viewership. With a high-margin streaming model, small price increases can still compound into ~10%+ profit growth via operating leverage; ads and further engagement could push EPS growth toward the mid-teens. A reverse DCF suggests only low-single-digit long-term earnings growth is needed to justify ~26x, so the setup looks like a high-quality franchise at a fair—not deep-value—price rather than a broken growth story.
| Instrument | Side | Target | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX.NE | Long | At ~22–26x earnings after a large drawdown, the market prices Netflix as a mature growth story, yet modest annual price increases, a scaling ads business, and operating leverage can still support double-digit EPS growth for years. Content spend per member has been disciplined, free cash flow tracks smoothed earnings, and competitive position as the sector leader is hard to dislodge—so a high-quality compounder at a fair multiple offers an attractive long entry. |
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