Micron HBM sold out through 2027 despite memory selloff

Conviction: 80% · Horizon: 3Y · 2026-07-28

AI demand keeps DRAM and HBM tight; contracted pricing makes this cycle structurally different from past memory busts

Memory is selling off on China competition and AI capex fears, but Micron HBM is sold out through 2026-27 on contracted pricing. Strategic Customer Agreements and 20-25% HBM share support peak earnings power lasting longer than the market prices in, with potential re-rating toward AI-winner multiples if China remains years away from high-end relevance.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
MU	Long		HBM remains sold out through 2027 on contracted pricing, AI keeps DRAM and HBM supply tight, and China competition is years from mattering at the high end—supporting earnings near peak longer than priced and a re-rating from cyclical-trough to AI-winner multiples toward $1,000-plus.

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