Public SpaceX exposure via Starlink growth and Starship optionality

Conviction: 50% · Horizon: 5Y · 2026-07-28

Starlink scales to tens of millions of high-margin subs while Starship unlocks unmatched mass-to-orbit economics

As the primary public path to the dominant space and satellite-internet franchise, scarcity premium can persist if Starlink compounds toward 15-20M+ subscribers at 60%+ margins, price hikes lift ARPU, Starship becomes operational, and xAI plus satellites-as-data-centers remain real optionality into the back half of the decade—despite high valuation, GAAP losses, and execution risk.

Instrument	Side	Target	Reason
SPCX	Long		Starlink compounding toward 15-20M+ high-margin subscribers, sticky ARPU increases, and operational Starship mass-to-orbit economics support growing into a scarcity premium as the only liquid public proxy for the dominant space and satellite-internet franchise.

Themes

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