Peer sales multiples on the transceiver ramp still leave upside even after a 50 percent miss, margin gap, and ATM dilution.

Management targets about 471 million dollars of monthly transceiver revenue by mid-2027 and roughly 5.6 billion dollars of annual revenue by FY28. A blended peer sales multiple near 9.8x (Lumentum at 13x on about 20 percent of the mix, Innolight and Eoptolink at about 9x on about 80 percent) implies around 55 billion dollars of enterprise value, or about 5.5x from current levels, before any ELSFP contribution of up to 200 million dollars per month from FY28. Cutting both the ramp and the multiple by 50 percent still produces about 13.7 billion dollars of EV. Gross margin is only about 29.8 percent versus about 43 to 47 percent at peers, with a path guided toward 40 percent, and ATM equity issuance to fund expansion argues for a more conservative 3x to 4x rather than 5.5x. The payoff remains skewed to the upside.