Aeva dilution risk versus optical interconnect pivot

Conviction: 45% · Horizon: 2Y · 2026-08-12
Conservative share-count and revenue assumptions already bake in heavy dilution, so the cash-burn bear case is less severe than critics claim.

Aeva faces multi-year equity issuance from cash burn and a moonshot pivot from automotive LiDAR into optical interconnects using silicon photonics. Modeled dilution and revenue appear deliberately conservative, which leaves upside if the new optical connectivity business scales and forward revenue is not fully discredited by the SPAC track record.

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