Aeva Dual-Play on 4D LiDAR and Datacenter Optical Sources

Conviction: 65% · Horizon: 4Y · 2026-08-12
Optics joint-development revenue can derisk AEVA while 4D LiDAR keeps asymmetric upside

AEVA is no longer a pure pre-scale LiDAR story. A near-packaged optic joint development with a major hyperscaler, targeting initial volumes around 2027 and a production ramp in 2028, points to high-margin optical-source revenue (management implies multi-hundred-million annual potential at ~40%+ EBITDA margins). Layering conservative optics assumptions onto analyst perception estimates, applying a 60–80% risk factor, and modeling dilution still supports multi-billion equity value versus a sub-$2B market cap—roughly a 3x path if execution holds.

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