Retire on $1M with a 15% earnings yield

Conviction: 70% · Horizon: 20Y · 2026-08-12
A $1M nest egg can fund ~$12,500/month if earnings yield compounds from ~6.7% at entry (≤15x PE) to a blended 15% via ~7.2% earnings CAGR over 20 years.

Conventional FIRE math assumes ~4% safe yield and thus ~$4M of capital. Buying only at ≤15x PE starts at a ~6.66% earnings yield; with capital deployed evenly over 20 years, ~7.2% earnings CAGR produces a portfolio-level blended ~15% yield on $1M (~$12,500/month). Slightly higher entry multiples (e.g. <20x PE) still work if earnings CAGR is nearer 10%. Risk should be sized to that modest growth requirement, not to chase 15% CAGR.

Instrument Side Target Reason
VTV Long We believe a systematic tilt toward reasonably priced large-cap value equities is the practical way to stay near or below mid-teens earnings multiples while still compounding earnings around high-single-digit rates—enough to grow entry earnings yields toward a mid-teens blended yield over a multi-decade retirement horizon without requiring hyper-growth names.

Themes

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AC.TO Air Canada Loyalty Stake Sale Unlocks Hidden Value 2026-08-13
GOOGL AMZN MSFT CRWV SMCI NBIS AI Bets Are Paying Off for Tech Giants 2026-08-13
SPY The Equity Bull Market Remains Intact 2026-08-13
CSQR New AI Data-Center Listing Has Room to Re-Rate 2026-08-13
OUST Digital lidar as a standalone robotics-perception bet 2026-08-13
TSEM LITE Silicon Photonics for AI Optical Interconnects 2026-08-13
POET Physical AI Stack and Optical Engines 2026-08-13
SMH Optics and AI Rally Invites Near-Term Volatility 2026-08-13
DLO dLocal's 2030 earnings power still underpriced 2026-08-13
ES=F Stay bullish above 7800 2026-08-13
ES=F Soft PPI and ES overnight support 2026-08-13
AEVA Aeva as a dual play on 4D LiDAR and hyperscaler optical sourcing 2026-08-13
SNDR CNC TAL Growth Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-13
PARR HRTG AERO Value Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-13
WMG ROK NXRT CMI ADI JPM MCHP Income Stocks With Improving Earnings Outlooks 2026-08-13
MQ PARR DIOD HRTG AERO.MX Five Stocks Added to Strong Buy List 2026-08-13
QQQ QQQ Breakout Above 710 Unlocks Gap-Fill Rally 2026-08-13
BRR Illiquid Micro-Caps Do Not Belong in a Concentrated Book 2026-08-12
META Adding to Meta After Recycling Bumble Proceeds 2026-08-12
BMBL Bumble Position Fully Closed After a Deep Loss 2026-08-12
BE SREMF CWR.L Solid Oxide Fuel Cells 2026-08-12
COIN CRCL Stablecoins 2026-08-12
COHR LITE MRVL CRDO AAOI POET AEVA Silicon Photonics 2026-08-12
BMBL Bumble Position Unwind Toward Zero 2026-08-12
PBR NMDR.OL Tight Oil Supply and Permian Super-Spec Rigs 2026-08-12
AQST FDA Packaging Setbacks as Asymmetric Biopharma Entries 2026-08-12
BMBL Continued unwind of Bumble after a deep drawdown 2026-08-12
DGRO Dividend Growth Can Outperform the Market 2026-08-12
VTV Retire on $1M with a 15% earnings yield 2026-08-12
CZFS NTTYY MTCH Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Expectations 2026-08-12
MTCH OSCR PBI Growth Stocks With Improving Earnings Expectations 2026-08-12
CNR Core Natural Resources Earnings Estimates Surge 2026-08-12
SOLS Solstice Advanced Materials Estimates Move Higher 2026-08-12
KMX CarMax Earnings Expectations Rise 2026-08-12
THC Tenet Healthcare Profit Expectations Improve 2026-08-12
IX ORIX Earnings Outlook Strengthens 2026-08-12
ES=F Post-CPI Equity Rally Fade Into Support 2026-08-12
ABCL AI Drug Discovery 2026-08-12
SE CRWV Growth tech names reprice higher on earnings beats and raised outlooks 2026-08-12
AEVA Aeva Optics Segment Revenue Ramp 2026-08-12
NK.PA Imerys lithium mine valuation vs Pilgangoora 2026-08-12
LMND PLTR PATH PANW NET SaaS Market Bifurcation Into Survivors and Laggards 2026-08-12
HIMS Hims 2030 EBITDA growth and valuation upside 2026-08-12
Aeva Dual-Play on 4D LiDAR and Datacenter Optical Sources 2026-08-12
AEVA Aeva dual-play on 4D LiDAR and CPO optical sources 2026-08-12
Aeva Technologies long-term 2030 valuation debate 2026-08-12
Aeva dilution risk versus optical interconnect pivot 2026-08-12
KSS DK VSNT ECPG CMCO ALTO ILPT Value Stocks With Low Multiples and Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-11
UPBD APC PLOW WMG CRGY HAS PLGO Income Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-11
FLXS CYD ALX DINO OPBK HLLY Five Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-11
Momentum Stocks With Rising Earnings Estimates 2026-08-11
MP USAR LAC INTC White House Strategic Materials Basket 2026-08-11
APLD CIFR WULF NBIS IREN Data Center and NeoCloud Weekly Technical Setups 2026-08-11
OKLO SMR Nuclear and SMR Pure Plays After Market Cap Reset 2026-08-11
RIVN Rivian Automotive position increased 2026-08-11
UNKNOWN_PHARMA FDA packaging rejections mispriced as drug failures 2026-08-11
NVDA NVDA SPY AI Boom Financing Fragility and Cheap Downside Protection 2026-08-11
GLD BTC-USD ABTC Timed Rotation from Gold into Bitcoin 2026-08-10
CCB Regional Banks Draw Sustained Insider Buying 2026-08-10
AAT Persistent Insider Buying in West Coast Real Estate 2026-08-10
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics Faces a Make-or-Break Fourth Quarter 2026-08-10
AAOI Applied Optoelectronics optical transceiver ramp 2026-08-10
ABCL Clinical Proof for AI-Discovered Antibody Medicines 2026-08-10
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SREMF Western scandium supply becomes a strategic bottleneck 2026-08-10
Non-hormonal menopause antibody validates AI-enabled drug discovery 2026-08-10
BMBL META RIVN Bumble Turnaround Stalls Amid Product Delays and Falling Revenue 2026-08-10
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COPX TAN SLV MP USAR UUUU SRL.AX Critical Minerals for EVs, Grid, Data Centers, and Robotics 2026-08-10
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NESR BE SANM NVDA PENN FIVE SNDR Growth Stocks With Improving Earnings Estimates 2026-08-10
FXY Japan Yen Resilience Versus Internal Debt Collapse Fears 2026-08-10
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QQQ Buy the Dip Into CPI After Post-FOMC Rally 2026-08-10
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BIL XLP First Phase of a Global Investment Mania Unwinding 2026-08-10
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VXUS EEM ITB Non-US Growth Overweight as the AI Unwind Hedge 2026-08-10
SMH MU SPY TQQQ AI Credit Impulse Exhaustion and Equity Unwind 2026-08-10
BX OWL Private Credit Stall Transmits Systemic Risk 2026-08-10
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AMSSY SIVEF LITE COHR GLW CIEN AAOI Photonics still early as light replaces copper 2026-08-09
IWD Risk-On Regime Favors US Value Stocks 2026-08-09
GLD Weak Jobs and a Fed Pause Lift Gold 2026-08-09
ARDX CHYM ZETA AUTL HALO GLBE Rotation out of ARDX into breakout growth names 2026-08-09
Tech-led rally after the July correction, with entries still too extended 2026-08-09
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ZBRA SWK DASH ULTA SHW Multi-Day Breakouts Are Capturing Concentrated Weekly Momentum 2026-08-08
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MAGS ES=F US Indexes Break Out of Multi-Month Flags 2026-08-08
IWM XBI NKTR PALI CRVS XLF KRE Small Caps, Financials, and Biotech Lead Market Breadth 2026-08-08
SMH Semiconductors Bounce Off a Healthy Channel Retest 2026-08-08
IYT TLT Transports Bear Flag While Yields Keep Rising 2026-08-08

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